Despite rising tensions between the US and China, the price of gold continues to decline. The current levels are below the mark of $1700. Investors are abandoning defensive assets amid growing optimism regarding a faster recovery of the global economy after the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
The optimism of investors is primarily based on the active actions of states and Central Banks to build up measures to support and stimulate the economy. A positive impact on market sentiment was also exerted by previously published data on economic activity in China, USA and Europe. The numbers indicate a recovery in key sectors of the economy as quarantine measures are weakening.
In an interview, Donald Trump announced a rapid economic recovery in the coming fall. Later, on Twitter, Trump wrote that the US economy is already at the first stage of recovery and will show the best results in history next year. “Not everyone agrees with me, but I have no doubt about it,” - Trump said.
Gold is also supported by the USD dynamics and relations between the United States and China. The dollar index has been declining for 7 consecutive trading days, having a positive effect on all commodity assets. The United States and China recently refused to resume direct communication between the countries. At first, Beijing banned American carriers from resuming flights. Similar actions in relation to Chinese airlines were later performed by Washington. Also, many sea carriers confirm information about the partial cancellation of the supply of American agricultural products to China.
Today, the economic calendar should pay attention to the ECB meeting and the press conference of Mario Draghi, as well as the publication of weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States.
Regarding the chart, the support level of 1695.00 was tested. At the moment we do not see a strong rebound in prices from this level, therefore, a high probability of a breakdown remains. In this case, we can expect a decline in quotations to around 1670.00.
Resistance Levels: 1709.50, 1725.00, 1750.00;
Support Levels: 1695.00, 1670.00, 1645.00.
The main scenario - a rollback to the level of 1709.50 and further downward movement.
An alternative scenario - a breakdown of intraday resistance at the level of 1709.50 and growth to 1725.00.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider shorts with very moderate risks from the level of 1709.50.