Gold is still trading in a fairly limited price range, awaiting the outcome of the FOMC meeting and the meeting of the US and Chinese negotiating groups in Beijing.
From the FOMC meeting, investors expect in-depth comments of the regulator regarding future plans for the implementation of monetary policy, which can have a very strong medium-term impact on financial markets. Therefore, the demand for gold remains limited, despite expectations of a rate cut of 25 bp. According to the CME Group, the probability of such an outcome is estimated at 73.9%.
Increased geopolitical risks remain a major support factor for gold. Investors do not expect a breakthrough in trade relations between the United States and China from the meeting in Beijing, so the situation in international trade will continue to put serious pressure on the world economy. More and more investors are concerned about the situation connected with Brexit, since in recent days the likelihood of an uncontrolled British exit from the EU has significantly increased.
Now both of these factors balance the influence of each other, so until the publication of the results of the FOMC meeting, we should expect the established range of trading will go on.
On the chart, the range trading continues to develop 1415.00-1428.00. The priority now is the scenario with the price leaving the price channel upwards. In this case, the next target for the price movement will be the level of 1438.00.
Resistance Levels: 1428.00, 1438.00, 1450.00;
Support levels: 1415.00, 1400.00, 1383.00.
The main scenario - the range 1415.00-1428.00.
An alternative scenario - the breakthrough the resistance at 1428.00 and an increase to 1438.00.
There is still a lot of uncertainty on the market. At the same time, the bullish signals predominate locally on the chart, therefore, within the framework of the current outset, you should give preference to longs from the lower border of the channel 1415.00-1428.00.