Dollar Stays Strong
At the start of a quiet week for data, the US dollar has moved strongly to the upside as the market digests news of Trump’s budget deal with congress. The USD index has broken back above the 97.11 resistance as traders display their relief at the avoidance of a further US government shutdown. USD upside could prove short-lived, however, as we expect the Fed to cut rates when it meets next week.
Euro Goes Lower
EURUSD has broken sharply lower today, with price moving back below the bullish trend line from year to date lows. Trading 1.1182 last, EURUSD is now sitting back below the 1.1217 level support which had been underpinning price action, as USD strength takes its toll.
Pound Heading Down
GBPUSD has been under pressure today also. Along with a resurgent USD, GBP is also struggling under the high likelihood that Boris Johnson will be the new PM today. His election is thought to increase the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit later in the year. GBPUSD trades 1.2442 last with the 1.2439 level managing to hold as support for now.
Risk Appetite Buoyant
Risk assets have also traded well at the start of the week. The boost came as a result of the US avoiding yet another government shutdown. SPX500 trades 2993.33 last as price makes its way into the upper end of the recent bearish channel from year to date highs. Expectations of a Fed rate cut next week should keep equities supported in the near term.
JPY & Gold Lower
Safe havens have been decidedly lower today. Higher equities prices and a stronger US dollar have seen both gold and JPY trading lower. USDJPY trades 108.19 last, with price having rallied strongly off the recent 107.19 low to make its way back above 107.90. XAUUSD trades 1418.34 last with price having reversed sharply back beneath the 1433.48 level which was broken last week.
Crude Weak Despite Good Fundamentals
Oil is having a fairly quiet start to the week. Prices are hovering around the 56.18 level for now. Crude has been on the decline recently despite a generally supportive backdrop of the EIA reporting steady drawdowns in US crude stores and OPEC announcing an extension to its production cuts. Concerns over the demand outlook into next year have curtailed the rally that had been taking place. Crude has slipped from highs of around $60 to current mid $50s levels.
High Betas Hit Hard
USDCAD has been higher again today. Weakness in oil prices along with a resurgent USD have helped boost USDCAD, taking the market up firmly off the recent 1.3037 lows. Price is now challenging the 1.3145 level, a break of which could pave the way for a much stronger recovery in USDCAD.
AUDUSD has been knocked lower today. A stronger USD and weaker gold prices have combined to take the shine off the recent rally. Price tested the bearish trend line from 2019 highs last week, which has capped upside for now. However, AUDUSD has found support at a retest of the broken .7021 level, keeping focus on a further push higher in the near term.