A day after equities plunged and the yields on the treasury bonds fell sharply, there was some sense of normalcy. Major equity indices managed to post a modest recovery following the sharp sell-off. However, it is unlikely that the clouds of uncertainty have lifted. The US has officially labeled China as a currency manipulator. This potentially has implications as the US is likely to bring in the IMF to reduce China’s so-called advantage due to its weaker exchange rate.
Euro Turns Flat on the Day
The euro currency was seen trading flat by late Tuesday’s US session. However, prices were flat after the euro rose to a one-month high. The common currency rose to intraday highs of 1.1248 before easing back on the day. Economic data from the eurozone was sparse and it was a similar case from the US as well, keeping EURUSD in check.
EURUSD to Settle into a Sideways Range
The currency pair managed to lift off right after hitting a fresh two-year low just a week ago. While this helped EURUSD to rise to a one-month high, the current momentum looks to be fading. This could keep the sideways range within 1.1250–1.1140 back into the foreground. However, the bias to the upside looks to be building up.
Oil Remains Weak on Trade War Escalations
WTI crude oil prices continued to remain weak. This was initially due to the stronger USD and later followed up by the US announcing new tariffs on Chinese imports. The threat of rising trade wars has dampened the global outlooking, putting downward pressure on the oil markets. Today’s EIA’s report on crude oil inventories will be closely watched. Forecasts show a possible drawdown to the tune of 2.9 million barrels.
WTI Likely to Lose the 54.42 Support
Price action in WTI crude oil currently indicates that oil prices could be turning weaker in the near term. The support level at 54.42 which held up so far is looking to give way to further declines. Today’s EIA inventory could be just the catalyst. A breakdown below the 54.42 support will push oil prices down to the 51.70 level of support next.
Gold Rallies on the Back of Risk Aversion
The precious metal continued to maintain the strong upside momentum. Gold prices rose to fresh highs on Tuesday, testing highs of 1474. The gains in gold come about as the recent declines in equity markets saw a strong risk aversion. Investors shed the risk appetite and fled to safe-haven assets amid continued uncertainty.
XAUUSD Likely to Test 1500 Next
If the current momentum is anything to go by, gold prices could be seen rising to 1500 in the near term. This would mark a new six-year high, at which gold is already trading. Technically, the upside breakout from the ascending triangle pattern indicates the minimum upside target to the 1500 level. Any declines could be limited to the breached resistance level of 1431–1428 region.