USD Waiting Game
The US dollar remains in the green today ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting though the market is widely expecting the Fed to ease by a further .25% in line with commentary from Powell and other policymakers since the last meeting. Optimism around US/China trade negotiations offers some risk to this view though. Given the uncertainty, the Fed is not likely to hold off on easing solely for this reason. USD index trades 98.19 last having bounced off the 97.57 low.
EURUSD remains subdued today with price hovering just below the 1.1025 level which was broken yesterday under the weight of a resurgent US dollar. EUR has pulled back strongly from the post-ECB highs printed last week. However, any easing from the Fed this week could stem the declines.
GBP Traders Await Supreme Court Decision
GBPUSD has been a little softer today. Although for now, the pair remains above the 1.2382 level. While above here focus remains on a further push higher to test the bear channel top. The market is waiting on the outcome of the UK Supreme Court hearing taking place today. This will determine whether UK PM Johnson acted illegally when proroguing parliament. If the decision is upheld, this would be firmly bullish for GBP as it could see MPs being returned to parliament ahead of the current October 14th date. Doing so would allow more time for counter-moves against Johnson.
Risk Assets Soften
Risk assets have been a little weaker today as the market remains cautious over the escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Following a suspected Iranian drone strike on the world’s largest oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia, Iran has responded to US accusations with a firm warning that it is ready for war. SPX500 trades 2966.88 last having been capped by a retest of the broken bullish trend line from 2018 lows.
Safe Haven Inflows Seen
Safe havens have been a little higher against USD today with both gold and JPY rising in light of the pullback in equities. USDJPY trades 108.19 last with price having lost momentum in the recent rally following the drone strikes over the weekend. XAUUSD, though in the green today, remains weaker following the rejection from 1522.75. However, the potential for further easing from the Fed tomorrow could see gold prices trading higher again over the week.
Crude Remains Above 61.06
Oil prices continue to hold above the 61.06 level today following the explosive moves seen at the open as the market reacted to around 5% of the global oil supply being wiped out. Following the spike higher on Sunday, price subsequently dipped back down to the 58.27 level which held as support, turning price higher once again. Elevated concerns around the potential for military conflict between the US and China are keeping oil prices supported here.
USDCAD price action has stagnated over recent sessions with volatility drying up ahead of the FOMC tomorrow, despite the wild moves in oil. USDCAD trades 1.3248 last, with price remaining rangebound between the 1.3207 level and 1.33 level for now.
RBA Minutes Weigh on AUD
AUDUSD has been firmly lower today as the release of the RBA meeting minutes overnight has heightened expectations of further easing in the near term. Indeed, with the latest China data showing severe weakness, the near term picture remains bearish for AUD which is also being weighed on by softer gold prices.