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UK Recession Risks As Q2 GDP Contracts

Sep 30 2019, 07:04 PM (BDT) | Orbex.com

Dollar Steady

The US dollar has started the week on a slightly softer note with the USD index trading in the red over the European morning on Monday. News over the weekend of potential US capital limits on Chinese companies is the first headline of the week. However, the US administration denied the rumors and market impact has been fairly limited at this point. USD index trades 98.78 last.

EUR Lower Amidst Data Woes

EURUSD has started the week a little lower despite a softer US dollar. Last week a range of weaker-than-expected data sets weighed heavily on EUR. This week, further Eurozone data sets, as well as Eurozone CPI, will be watched. Any downside surprises will keep EUR pressured over the week. EURUSD trades 1.0932 last, sitting just above the 1.0914 support for now.

GBP Boosted By Better Growth

GBPUSD has been stronger so far today with price trading 1.2326 last, though still sitting below the 1.2382 level for now. Data released by Office for National Statistics this morning showed that the economy expanded by 0.6% in January-March, an increase from the prior 0.5%. The move was largely attributed to stockpiling ahead of Brexit. However, the data also showed that the economy contracted 0.2% over Q2 presenting recession risks should Q3 be shown to have contracted also.

Quiet Start For Risk Markets

Risk assets have had a muted start to the week. News of the potential US capital restrictions on Chinese companies, as well as news of President Trump’s potential impeachment, has capped upside for now. Reduced US rate cut expectations have also stalled the rally in equities. However, for now, SPX500 remains above the 2940.33 level, keeping the prospect of further upside alive.

Gold Goes Lower

Safe havens have had a mixed start to the week with JPY slightly higher against USD while gold is firmly under pressure once again. XAUUSD trades 1486.57 last as the diminished forecasts for further US rate cuts this year has taken the shine out of the gold trade. USDJPY trades 107.92 last with price hovering below the recent September highs around 108.47.

Crude Slides Further

Oil prices have been lower again at the start of the week as ongoing concerns over the demand outlook continue to bunt upside. The EIA reported a further build in US crude stores last week along with rising US crude production. Indeed, even better manufacturing data out of China overnight has failed to stoke any buying in crude which currently trades 55.43.

CAD Under Pressure

USDCAD has been higher today. Weakness in crude prices is keeping CAD capped though a softer dollar means that no real momentum has been seen. USDCAD trades 1.3241 last with price recovering from last week’s approach to the 1.3207 level.

AUD Weak Ahead of RBA

AUDUSD is weaker today. The market is widely expecting the RBA to announce a further rate cut at this month’s meeting this week. The bank remained on hold over the last month though recent comments from Governor Lowe have boosted expectations for a further cut. Given the reduced US rate cut expectations, such a move could be firmly bearish for AUDUSD which currently trades .6752.

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