Traders Wait on FOMC Minutes
The US dollar has been lower over the European session so far on Wednesday though has bounced off lows. Looking across the rest of the day, the FOMC meeting minutes will be the key data. The minutes are expected to show stronger opposition to further Fed easing though given recent data weakness the minutes are potentially a little out of date at this stage. USD index trades 98.69 last.
EUR Higher on USD Weakness
EURUSD has been higher today, benefiting from weakness in USD. The Eurogroup meetings underway today and though details are not published, the press usually receives summaries from individual attendees across the day which could have some market impact. EURUSD trades 1.0981 last.
GBP Whipsaw Continues
GBPUSD has had a turbulent 24 hours, whipsawed by conflicting Brexit headlines. Price was lower yesterday in response to reports that Johnson’s Brexit deal was essentially finished. However, subsequent reports that the EU might offer some leniency over the Irish backstop issue provided some upside though flows have since reversed again with GBPUSD trading back down at 1.2207.
Risk Weak Mid-Week
Risk assets have weakened over the morning so far. Conflicting Brexit headlines are adding to investor uncertainty amidst a backdrop of caution ahead of the next round of US/China trade talks on the 10th. While the market is hopeful of a deal being done, the risks of failure remain high which would be heavily bearish for equities. SPX500 trades 2915.78 last.
Gold & JPY Down
Safe havens have both been lower today despite the weakness seen in equities and the US dollar. The trade talks at the top of the week continue to be the main focus while tonight’s FOMC meeting minutes could also drive short term price movements. XAUUSD trades 1501.83 last, sitting in the middle of the 1481.93–1522.75 range. USDJPY trades 107.36 last, nearing the week’s highs again.
Oil Up Despite Bearish API Report
Oil prices have remained bullish today despite the API yesterday reporting a large, 4 million barrel surplus in crude inventories. However, the breakdown of the data showed a large product draw which has offset some of the downside. Optimism ahead of the US/China trade talks is also keeping oil supported here. Crude trades 53.12 last, sitting up off the 51.28 level for now. Traders will wait on the headline EIA report due later today.
Crude Supporting CAD
USDCAD has weakened today as a result of firmer crude prices. However, in line with the bounce in USD, price has since recovered some losses to trade back up above the 1.33 level. With the FOMC meeting minutes and the weekly EIA report ahead there is plenty of scope for further volatility in the pair which is currently fighting to stay above the 1.33 level.
AUD In The Green
AUDUSD has been higher today as price continues to consolidate above the local .6690 support level. The US/China trade talks remain the key focus with a positive outcome likely to provide a boost for AUD. In the short term, if tonight’s FOMC meeting minutes are particularly hawkish (or rather, show a lack of dovishness) this would weigh on the pair.