It’s been a quiet start to the week for the US dollar. The USD index has been hovering around the 97.80 level this morning, still sitting at the bottom of last week’s declines for now. US CPI last week surprised to the upside, which has further weighed on US rate cut expectations, keeping USD risks tilted to the upside. This week, traders will receive the minutes from the October FOMC meeting which is expected to boost USD further.
EURUSD is in the green so far today as the USD languishes on the back of weakness into the end of last week. The ECB meeting minutes will be the main focus this week, along with a raft of Eurozone PMI data sets. PMI data sets have been trending lower over recent months so any further weakness here will likely bring EUR lower. EURUSD trades 1.1059 last.
GBPUSD has been higher so far today as traders continue to display optimism ahead of the UK general elections in December. Data released last week saw the UK avoid falling into a technical recession over Q3. While growth was a little slower than the BOE’s estimates, the 0.3% reading was a marked improvement on last quarter’s -0.2% level. GBPUSD trades 1.2952 last.
SPX500 Still Near Highs
Risk assets have been higher again today on the back of further US/China trade talks over the weekend. With a deal expected very soon, SPX500 continues to trade higher here with price at 3125.68 as of writing. A more optimistic tone from the Fed recently has also bolstered risk appetite here.
JPY & Gold Lower
Safe havens have been lower again today as better risk appetite has seen less flight to safety among investors. XAUUSD trades 1458.05 last, turning lower within the falling wedge which has framed price action over the last few months. USDJPY trades 109.01 last, moving back above the 108.84 level.
Oil prices have been a little lower so far at the start of the week despite better expectations around US/China trade talks. Last week, the EIA reported a further build in US crude inventories adding further concern to the global oil demand outlook. Crude trades 57.45 last, sitting back above the 57 level for now.
Canadian CPI On Watch
USDCAD has been higher today as a result of weaker oil prices which are weighing on CAD. This week, CAD traders will be watching Canadian CPI which is the headline domestic data release. With the BOC having signaled the prospect of further rate cuts in the near future, any weakness will be heavily bearish for CAD at this point. USDCAD trades 1.3219 last.
AUD On The Rocks
AUDUSD has been lower today also as traders await further details on the ongoing US/China trade talks. Later today RBA governor Lowe speaks and traders will be keen to hear any guidance on RBA monetary policy. While the RBA remained on hold recently, further rate cuts are expected in the near term. AUDUSD trades .6805 last.