Equity markets rallied as a risk on sentiment saw major US indices touching new highs from Friday. The gains were partly driven by activity in the stock markets.
However, trade optimism is once again partly cited for the gains. President Trump on Friday said that a trade deal was near, in a volte-face from earlier tweets.
So far, there has been no clarity on the trade talks, and investors are simply reacting to rumors.
German Ifo Business Confidence Rises
The Ifo institute’s business confidence report for Germany saw a modest rebound in the index. The index beat estimates of 94.9 and rose to 95.0. This was higher than 94.7 which was registered on the index a month ago. Despite the increase, Ifo issued a warning about German manufacturing, which is still in a slump.
Will EURUSD Break the Support?
Price action in the currency pair is testing the support level of 1.0000 as expected. However, a lot hinges on how price behaves at this level. If the support remains firm, there is scope for a rebound.
This will likely see the EURUSD drifting sideways below the 1.1062 resistance. Alternatively, a convincing break down below the 1.0000 support could open the way for a drop to 1.0952.
Sterling Rises Despite Strong USD
The pound sterling was on the front foot on Monday following Friday’s declines. The gains come despite the US dollar rising strongly. Economic data from the UK remains sparse. Investors, however, look to the upcoming elections.
So far, poll pundits put Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party as the front runner. This potentially translates to the UK finally leaving the EU on January 31st, 2020 if the Tories win with a majority.
GBPUSD Reclaims Resistance Level
Price action in the currency pair saw a push above the resistance area of 1.2865. So far, prices remain confined within Friday’s range.
But, this could potentially indicate a near term breakout. There is a chance of an inverse head and shoulders pattern emerging near the current highs. At the same time, there is scope for price to break out lower. For the moment, we expect GBPUSD to remain within the said levels of 1.2865 and 1.2960.
Gold Prices Pressured Lower on China Talks
The precious metal was trending lower on Monday on the news about the US-China trade talks. The declines in the precious metal come amid renewed risk-off sentiment in the market.
China announced that it would step up its efforts to protect intellectual property rights. This has been one of the key demands from Washington for a deal to be made.
XAUUSD Downside Confirmed Only if Resistance Holds
XAUUSD has been trading volatile and the current bearish momentum points to a decline towards the 1445 level of support. However, unless resistance is tested near 1462, it is unlikely to see more declines.
There is scope for price action to breakout higher. Therefore, the resistance level of 1462 remains key. In the near term, we expect XAUUSD to be range-bound within the 1462 and 1445 levels.