USD Rallies on Thursday
The US dollar has started the first proper trading day of 2020 in the green with price recovering following a drift lower over fallow New Year’s Day trading which saw very light volumes.
Data sets released so far this week have done little to help the dollar. On Monday, the Chicago PMI was better than expected. However, the reading remained below the 50 level.
On Tuesday, CB consumer confidence came in weaker than expected. Traders now wait for the ISM manufacturing reading tomorrow along with the FOMC meeting minutes. USD index trades 96.28 last.
Euro Falls on Manufacturing Weakness
EURUSD has been lower today, weighed on by a resurgent US dollar as well as a slew of disappointing data readings. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs releases this morning both remained in contractionary territory.
While the eurozone reading was slightly better than expected, at just 46.3, the sector is still severely weak. EURUSD trades 1.20 last.
Data Miss Hits GBP
GBPUSD trades lower today also as the final manufacturing reading for December was revised lower to 47.5 from 47.6. Despite the data weakness, GBPUSD remains close to recent highs as optimism around Brexit keeps sentiment underpinned. GBPUSD trades 1.3212 last, just off the recent 1.3283 highs.
Risk Rallies on Trade Deal News
Risk assets have been firmly higher today in response to President Trump’s announcement that the US and China will sign off on the phase-one trade deal on January 15th.
Writing on Twitter, Trump also said that he will be going to Beijing at a later date to begin talks on phase two. The market has been highly encouraged by this strong start to the year with SPX500 rallying back up to 3247.33 last.
JPY & Gold Lower
Safe havens have had a soft start to 2020 trading with gold slightly lower against USD and JPY firmly lower as a result of the strong rally in risk assets. USDJPY is retesting the broken 108.84 level now, having rallied off the recent 108.47 lows. XAUUSD trades 1520.23 last, still sitting below the 1522.75 level for now.
Crude Consolidation Continues
Oil prices have been a little deflated today, despite the positive news on the US-China trade deal. For now, it seems the strength in USD is having a limiting effect on crude.
The EIA report is delayed this week due to the New Year’s Day holiday and will instead be released tomorrow. Following last week’s 5.5 million barrel drawdown, the market now projects a further 3.1 million barrel drawdown which should keep prices supported. Crude trades 61.07 last.
Loonie Recovers But Still Weak
USDCAD has been a little firmer today as a result of stickiness in oil prices and a firmer USD. However, the recent sell-off has seen price hurtling down through the 1.3037 support. The key domestic data focus today will be Canadian manufacturing data, seen at 51.4 last month.
AUD Down on Data Miss
AUDUSD has been under pressure today also. Despite the strong rally in risk assets as a result of the news on a US-China trade deal, AUDUSD has pulled back to .6995 last. Overnight, commodity price data came in below expectations at -2.1% which, coupled with a firmer USD, is weighing on the Aussie here.