USD Falls On Manufacturing Miss & Fed Talk
The US dollar has been trading in the red once again over the morning session on Tuesday and, in light of the heavy sell-off in USD over the last two weeks, the near-term outlook remains heavy. Yesterday, the US ISM Manufacturing reading fell back to 50.1 from 50.9 previous, below the expected 50.5 level. Following on from a statement released last week by Chairman Powell, the market now expects the Fed to ease this month, which should keep USD weighted to the downside. USD index trades 97.56 last.
Euro Lower On USD Strength
EURUSD continues to trade in the green today. EUR has been much firmer over the last week, benefiting from USD weakness though sentiment towards the Eurozone remains bearish in the bigger picture in light of recent data softness and ongoing coronavirus fears. EURUSD trades 1.1109 last, softening a little from the recent highs.
GBP Lower on Data Revision
GBPUSD has been a little weaker today also with price sitting right back down on the 1.2770 support level as today’s strength in USD weighs. Yesterday, the UK manufacturing reading for February was revised down from the prior 51.9 to 51.7 though it was at least able to remain in expansionary territory for the month.
Risk Appetite Recover on Stimulus Hopes
Risk assets have continued to trade higher on Tuesday with traders buoyed by recent statements from the Fed and the BOJ which both signaled a readiness to ease in order to combat the coronavirus’ impact on the economy. Traders now expect the Fed to ease by 0.25% this month with some players looking for a larger .50% cut. The SPX500 trades 3089.00 last, having rallied strongly off last week’s 2855.04 lows.
Safe Havens Stall For Now
Safe havens have had a more muted week so far. Given the recovery in equities prices, both JPY and gold have been a little lower against USD. However, given the very volatile backdrop with the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, there is plenty of upside risks for safe havens. USDJPY trades 107.98 last, up off lows below 107.50 last week. XAUUSD trades 1595.95 last as price continues to grind lower.
Crude Rallying Ahead of OPEC
Oil prices are fighting to recover this week amidst the rebound in broader risk appetite. A surge in central bank easing expectations is helping lift risk assets across the board, despite the ongoing coronavirus risks. Crude prices have recovered to 48.39 last from lows of 43.60 yesterday. Traders are also expecting that OPEC will announce fresh measures when it meets this week, also helping to lift oil prices.
Loonie Holds Above Support
USDCAD has been lower today in light of the recovery in crude prices which is helping lift CAD. For now, though, price remains above the 1.3345 support, keeping focus on further upside. Back below there, however, and focus will turn to the 1.33 support zone next.
Aussie Testing Resistance Despite RBA Rate Cut
AUDUSD has been a little higher today with price benefiting from the rebound in risk assets. Indeed, the recovery in AUD comes despite Chinese manufacturing data yesterday marking record lows over the prior month, reflecting the damage to the economy from the coronavirus outbreak. AUDUSD trades .6559 last, capped by the .6565 level for now. The rally comes despite the RBA cutting rates overnight by 0.25% to new record lows of 0.5% in a bid to buffer the economy against the coronavirus impact.