After a long-term bearish trend Australian dollar is reversing against the US dollar. As usual, we trying to predict the price movement using technical and fundamental analysis.
On 1D TF bulls are trying to break the trend line downward, which confirms that the market is bearish. If the bulls succeed, the long-term bearish trend is quite likely to change. But maybe a new upward movement will follow a flat. The resistance line is at the 0,7160 level, which had become a strong support one twice in 2016. This level also became a resistance line several times (in 2004 and in 2009).
On the working 4H TF the pair broke 9 EMA upward. The Parabolic SAR changed its direction and began to rise. On the other hand, the MACD line began to approach the signal line.
Results: if the pair breaks 0,7160 it is possible to open long positions.
Some really important pieces of news are to be published next week. On Monday, the RBA releases its Meeting minutes and on Thursday, the US publishes its retail sales. The forecast for retail sales is positive – +0,7%. If the reading is lower the US dollar will drop.