The gold market has seen better buying this week, leading to a breakout to fresh 2020 highs, amidst a weakening in risk appetite.
Concerns this week regarding the prospect of a fresh outbreak of COVID-19 have weighed on risk appetite, seeing equities prices under pressure.
Reports of an upwards trend in new infection numbers in the US have taken center stage this week. There are also concerns that the UK is vulnerable to a fresh outbreak of the virus as it prepares to ease lockdown measures further on July 4th.
Gold prices have seen higher demand, despite a better slew of economic data earlier in the week. The UK and the eurozone both saw better manufacturing data last month. However, the US manufacturing PMI disappointed, underscoring fears for the economy should lockdown measures need to be reintroduced.
The IMF updated its global economic projections this week and now forecasts the global economy to suffer a $12 trillion hit from the virus.
The update also notes that the global recovery is likely to take upwards of two years to get back to pre-virus levels of output. Gold prices rallied as the IMF forecast that the global economy will now suffer a 4.9% contraction. This is worse than the 3% forecast last time.
Bull Channel Persists in Gold
Gold prices tested the upper limit of the recent bullish channel this week, which capped the rally for now. However, while prices hold above the 1750.67 level, the near term focus remains on further upside with the 1787.85 level the next key resistance level to watch.
To the downside, any correction lower will turn focus onto the 1700 level.
The silver market has had a more turbulent week, constrained by the weakness in equities markets. Fears of a fresh outbreak of the coronavirus have seen a loss of upside momentum in silver over the last week.
Better industrial data earlier in the week helped offer some support, offsetting the weakness in equities. However, the downside surprise in US data put an end to the upside and prices have since been languishing within the prior week’s range.
Silver Holds Support
Silver prices have been trading in a tight range over recent weeks, underpinned by the 17.42 level which continues to offer support.
While above here, focus is on a continued push higher. A challenge of the bearish trend line from last year’s highs is the next upside level to watch, ahead of structural resistance at the 18.83 level.