Market sentiment is mixed today with US stocks opening lower, but so far being well supported by the widely watched 200-day moving average. European markets are more positive while the greenback is making gains, after a smorgasbord of US domestic data showed a steady, if depressed jobs market and bumper durable goods figures which keep the dreams of a v-shaped recovery alive.
Markets continue to fret over the risks of an unchecked rise in Covid cases and yesterday’s threat of US tariffs on EU goods puts US protectionism back on the table leading into the November elections.
Price action may be swayed by month and quarter end rebalancing flows, and what a quarter it has been! Records of every type have been regularly broken in the financial markets with two-way markets expected to reign going forward as traders wait for the next defining catalyst.
The saga of German fintech Wirecard might be a worthy metaphor for the current market volatility as the company filed for insolvency today sending the stock crashing over 70%.
EUR/USD still contained in its range
Today’s ECB Minutes told us that President Lagarde is ready to do more heavy policy lifting if it is needed, and low growth and disinflationary pressure were the main drivers of the June decision to ramp up the size of the PEPP.
EUR/USD support around the 1.12 level is proving solid for the single currency bulls. Short-term resistance lies above at 1.1270 followed by 1.13. Playing the range seems sensible in the 1.12-1.14 trading band as price action is fairly contained at present.
GBP following the dollar mood
There’s been no major domestic news in today’s session, so traders are following the wider risk environment. Eyes will be on the resumption of trade talks with the EU next week.
Having been stuck between its 50-day and 100-day moving average for the past session, cable is now trading below the former at 1.2420. Solid support remains in the 1.2330 area with resistance above at 1.2530/40.