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The end of the week. Unemployment day

Aug 2 2019, 05:26 PM (+06) |

Happy unemployment statistics Friday, folks! As usual, the US publishes its Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate at 12:30 GMT. As for the NFP, economists expect a result of +164K . The Unemployment rate is expected to come out at +3,7% level. Let’s think about the possible facts. We recommend that you pay attention to the following ratios:

  1. ADP NFP

As we have already mentioned, the ADP released its result at +156K, which is better than the previous data. The previous reading was revised from +102K to 112K. This factor is positive.

  1. Average jobless claims

4-week average jobless claims decreased to 211,5K. This is the lowest data since April. Thus, it means that the situation with employment may improve.

Picture 1. US Jobless claims 4-Week Aug.

  1. Challenger Job cuts

Challenger, Gray & Christmas published job cuts statistics on Thursday. The situation has been improving since May. In July, they fixed about 39K Job cuts, which is less than in June (42K).

  1. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Institute for Supply Management assessed the situation with the employment activity in manufacturing sphere. Compared with the previous month data, employment activity has decreased significantly.

  1. Conference Board Help wanted online

The Conference Board HWOL index decreased from 102,6 in May to 102,4 in June.

Picture2. Conference board HWOL index

Summary: there are several positive and negative factors. The global situation is a little bit unclear. As a result, we don’t expect big deviation from the forecast–we think that unemployment rate may remain at the same level of +3,7%. We don’t expect the NFP to get over +200K.

As for the EUR/USD pair, it’s better not to do anything today if you are a conservative trader. Aggressive traders may try long the US currency. Good unemployment statistics may persuade traders that the Fed won’t act too actively in the future, so there may be a smaller chance of a rate cut.

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