The EUR / USD pair maintains a downward vector against the background of the strengthening of the American currency and high political and economic risks in the EU.
On Friday, preliminary data on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan was published in the United States. The figure rose to the highest value in the last 15 years, which reflects the high confidence of Americans regarding the prospects for the development of the country's economy. A high level of demand for US currency is being maintained by the tense situation in world trade, and the exacerbation of conflicts in the Middle East, since many investors view the dollar as a defensive asset, amid a weakening of other major world currencies.
The demand for European currency remains low. Investors are not satisfied with the statistics from Europe, which continue to indicate that economic activity in the region continues to slow down. Another “horror story” for investors is the situation associated with Brexit. The political crisis in the UK is intensifying. There are fears that after the resignation of May, the premier’s seat will be taken by a supporter of “tough” Brexit, which could have strong negative consequences not only for the UK economy, but also for the EU.
Today, the focus of investors will be on the presentations by members of the FOMC and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
On the chart, the price fixed below the level of 1.1180, which is a signal of the continuation of the downward trend. The immediate target for sellers is now the level of 1.1140, but, in the current situation, we should not exclude a stronger decline in quotations, to 1.1100.
· Resistance levels: 1.1180, 1.1220, 1.1260.
· Levels of support: 1.1140, 1.1100, 1.1000.
The main scenario is a decline to 1.1140 and 1.1100.
An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1180 and growth to 1.1220.
The market situation has not changed significantly, the news background remains negative, contributing to the further development of the bearish trend. Therefore, inside the day we consider selling, which should be looked for at the level of 1.1180.