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Trumps Tariff War Games and Brexit Tory Optimism EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Nov 12 2019, 03:40 PM (+06) |


On Friday, the market finally got some clarity from the source that calls the shots on the US-Сhina trade war. President Donald Trump announced that he has not agreed to any tariff rollbacks. He stated that ‘China would like to get somewhat of a rollback — not a complete rollback, because they know I won’t do it’. Moments later he went on to say that the United States and China are ‘getting along very well’. One point, President Trump did not fail to stress is that China wants to make a trade deal much more that himself. On Saturday, before boarding the Air Force One in Maryland, President Trump mentioned that he wanted to make a deal but it has to be a ‘great’ deal – otherwise he won’t make it. Details remain secretive with President Trump only stating ‘you’ll see what I’m going to be doing’. The latest Trump’s remark regarding tariffs said ‘The level of tariff lift is incorrect’.

On the Daily TF for EUR/USD, we see that the price is at the 50% Fibo level around 1.10330. The MACD bearish histogram is growing. 9 EMA is crossing 20 EMA down. The RSI is within the range.

Resistance:  R1 38.2% Fibo 1.10647, R2 23.6% Fibo 1.11086, R3 1.11795.
Support: S1 1.10000, S2 1.09733, S3 1.09434.

Cross pairs with the Japanese Yen traded lower on risk aversion.
On the Daily TF for USD/JPY, we can see that   rejection of higher prices above 61.8% Fibo. The pair is now resting on resistance, which turned into support around 108.933. The pair is waiting for further news on US-Sino Phase One Trade deal. The Ichimoku Cloud bias remains strongly bullish.

Resistance is around: R1 61.8% Fibo 109.362, R2 109.620, R3 110.095.
Support is around: S1 108.698, S2 50% Fibo 108.423, S3 108.00.  


The United Kingdom had a bearish end of last week with two BoE members voting for a rate cut. This morning brought worse than expected UK GDP, 0.3% QoQ, below the forecast of 0.4%, and 1.0% YoY below the forecast of 1.1%.  Both industrial (-0.3% MoM Sep.) and manufacturing (-0.4% MoM Sep.) production also came out below expectations.

This morning, GBP/USD opened the session with a gap up due to renewed risk of aversion and US-Sino trade war tensions. Worse than expected statistics failed to bring the Sterling down, as UK elections take front stage.

As for the breaking news, leader of the Brexit Party Nigel Farage said the party will not contest 317 conservative seats won by Theresa May. Instead, his party will focus on defeating the Labor Party. According to the polls, Conservatives are leading with 39%, Labor 28% and Liberal Dems 16%. The breakthrough is the Tory’s pact that will likely result in Conservatives getting a majority in parliament to end the Brexhaustion and start the Brexit transition.

On the Daily TF, the pound rose on optimism and met support turned into resistance around 1.28755. That coincides with the Ichimoku Conversion line. The bias remains strongly bullish. The RSI pointing up within the range. The ADX is showing a strong uptrend.

Resistance is around: R1 1.29418, R2 1.30125, R3 1.30764
Support is around:  S1 23.6% Fibo 1.27637, S2 38.2% Fibo 1.26098, S3 50% Fibo 1.24854

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