UK retail sales rose in June. The result was +1%. Economists had expected consumption to decline. Core retail sales (excluding automobile and fuel sales) rose to 3,6%.
Picture 1. Seasonally adjusted, Percentage change, Great Britain
Strong data will definitely have a good impact on the national GDP. A new Prime Minister is to be announced in GB next week on July 23. We expect high volatility in the market.
As for this week, retail sales are the most important news that influences the British national currency. Speaking of the US dollar, traders might pay attention to Michigan University research data that comes out on Friday. Thus, technical analysis may be a priority.
Let’s try to analyze the pair from this side.
On 1D TF, there is a divergence between the price and the MACD histogram. The price formed some kind of a ‘morning star’ pattern. The pair reached 9-EMA. If it breaks the 1,25000 level, we expect that the price may move further to 1,25720 and to the next level at 1,26875.
Indicators confirm the possibility of a reversal. The Williams %R reversed and broke the lower line. The MACD lines started approaching each other.
Picture 2 GBP/USD. 1D TF.