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Oct 1 2019, 06:38 PM (+06) |

ISM Manufacturing Data Up Next

The US dollar has been a little lower over the European morning on Tuesday as risk appetite has recovered, taking equities higher. The market has responded well to news of better manufacturing data out of China. Traders are now waiting on US manufacturing data due later today which is also expected to have increased over August. USD index trades 99.16 last, with price still sitting above the 99.10 level for now.

Eurozone CPI Misses Expectations Again

EURUSD has been lower again today despite a softer US dollar. Eurozone CPI was lower than expected over the last month printing 0.9% vs expectations of a 1% reading. With inflation still less than half way to the ECB’s target range, the chances of further ECB easing in the coming months remain high. EURUSD trades 1.0895 last, with price now firmly below the 1.0914 level.

GBP Lower On Data Miss

GBPUSD has stabilized today, though the near-term outlook remains bearish given recent UK developments. The latest UK GDP data showed growth contracting at -0.2% over Q2. The UK is now at risk of a technical recession should the Q3 reading come in lower than expected. GBPUSD trades 1.2286 last.

Risk Assets Quiet Ahead of Data

Risk assets continued to stagnate over Tuesday morning. With traders divided over the likelihood of further easing from the Fed and awaiting the week’s headline data on Friday (US employment reports) price action is likely to remain subdued over the week. Today’s US manufacturing data could provide some volatility however. SPX500 trades 2984.53 last.

Safe Havens Lower Despite USD Strength

Safe havens have both been lower today. Better data out of China, as well as optimism heading into the next round of US/China trade talks, is keeping equities supported, taking the safe-haven flows away from JPY and gold. XAUUSD trades 1467 last with price continuing to slide from the 1522.75 level in light of reduced Fed easing expectations. USDJPY trades 108.35 last, with price moving back towards September highs.

Crude Steady Ahead of API

Oil prices have posted a mild recovery over the European session so far as a weaker USD and better risk appetite have seen crude prices pause their recent decline. Despite the demand seen so far, API data due later today could see prices under pressure again if another inventories build is seen. Crude trades 54.64 last, with price having found support at a retest of 53.94 lows.

CAD Still Weak

USDCAD has been higher today despite a weaker USD and higher oil prices. CAD has been under pressure over recent weeks due to the sharp reversal lower in crude prices which have retraced all of the Saudi drone-strike gains. USDCAD trades 1.3276 last with price moving back up towards the 1.33 level resistance.

RBA Cuts Rates

AUDUSD has been heavily lower today following the rate cut overnight from the RBA. Citing downside risks from the ongoing US/China trade war, the RBA cut rates to a new record low of .50%, while signaling that further cuts could still be needed. AUDUSD trades .6703, quickly approaching the .6678 2019 lows.

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