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USD/CHF - US Dollar Positioning For Upside Break Vs Swiss Franc

Jun 20 2017, 10:02 PM (CDT) |

Key Highlights

  • The US Dollar has recovered well from the 0.9600-20 support against the Swiss Franc.
  • The USD/CHF pair needs to break a major bearish trend line at 0.9760 to initiate an uptrend.
  • Today in the US, the Existing Home Sales for May 2017 will be released, which is forecasted to decline by 0.5%, less than the last -2.3%.
  • Recently, the US Current Account for Q1 2017 was reported, which posted a deficit of $-116.8B, better than the forecast of $-123.8B.

USDCHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar after forming a base near 0.9600 against the Swiss Franc started an upside move. The USD/CHF pair traded above 0.9700, and now approaching a major upside break.

USDCHF Technical Analysis US Dollar Swiss Franc

Looking at the 4-hours chart of USD/CHF, there is a crucial bearish trend line forming at 0.9760. Buyers need to successfully pierce the trend line with a close above 0.9760 to initiate an uptrend.

It has already cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9807 high to 0.9613 low and the 100 simple moving average (H4), which is a positive sign.

Once the pair break the trend line and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9807 high to 0.9613 low, it would open the doors for a test of 0.9800. Above 0.9800, the pair may extend gains towards 0.9850.

On the downside, there is a trend line support at 0.9720 plus the 100 SMA to hold losses in the near term.

US Current Account

Recently in the US, the Current Account figure for Q1 2017 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast was lined up for a deficit of $-123.8B, compared to the last $-112.4B.

US Current Account Q1 2017

The actual result was slightly better, as the trade deficit was $-116.8B in Q1 2017. The last reading was revised up from $-112.4B to $-114.0B.

The report mentioned that:

The $2.8 billion increase in the current-account deficit reflected a $5.3 billion increase in the deficit on goods and a $3.6 billion decrease in the surplus on primary income that were partly offset by a $5.8 billion decrease in the deficit on secondary income and a $0.3 billion increase in the surplus on services.

Overall, the US Dollar is trading with a positive bias, and if USD/CHF succeeds in breaking 0.9760, there can be an increase in buying sentiment in the near term.

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