After the last FOMC on the 20th of March 2019, the US dollar started rising against Switzerland’s frank. From the fundamental side the growth of the US national currency is weird, taking into consideration that the Fed is not going to strengthen monetary policy, the rhetoric of its members softened and became more dovish. On the other hand, PPI in Switzerland grew in February. Despite this fact the Swiss National Bank left the interest rate at the same negative level -0,75%, confirming that the negative interest rate and the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary therefore remain essential.
According to CFTC report (last released on 12th April) all groups of ‘buy-side’ participants mostly went short in CHF. But from the technical side, there are several features that are attracting our attention.
On the weekly time frame, the pair is approaching the resistance level 1.0100. The volume is dropping - giving the signal that bulls are weakening. The Williams %R is in the overbought zone and is ready to return back into the working zone.
On our working 1D TF, the pair went quite far from its moving average. That is the preliminary signal of the reversal.
Results: if the pair reaches the level 1.0100 – it is possible to think about short positions and to trade against the US national currency.