On Tuesday, most of the day gold was trading in the red zone, remaining under pressure from the dollar and a rather optimistic situation on the stock markets.
The situation began to change with the beginning of the American trading session. At first, the pressure on the US currency was put on by Donald Trump’s new tweet, in which he once again criticized the Fed’s policy. Later, Trump's public comments on further negotiations with China put pressure on the stock markets. In particular, Trump said that the United States will not conduct further negotiations until China agrees to fulfill previous commitments.
Concerns about a possible exacerbation of the trade conflict between the US and China began to grow on the market again, forcing investors to buy risk-free assets.
Today, the driver for the growth of quotations of gold made inflation data from China. The consumer price index rose from 2.5% to 2.7%, which is the maximum value of this indicator over the past 15 months. Investors fear that the further aggravation of the trade conflict will contribute to the deterioration of the economic situation in the country, which will inevitably affect the entire Asia-Pacific region and not only.
Among the economic news the focus of attention today will be on the speech of the ECB head Mario Draghi and data on inflation in the United States, which may affect the future actions of the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Now the probability of lowering the rates at the June Fed meeting is estimated at 15%, and at the July meeting at 76.2%.
The bullish wave is developing quite actively on the chart, after the price has returned for the level of 1325.00. The main target for this movement is the level of 1343.00, where you can expect the formation of a reversal and the resumption of the downward movement.
Resistance Levels: 1343.00, 1350.00, 1355.00;
Support levels: 1325.00, 1318.00, 1310.00.
The main scenario - growth to 1343.00 and the resumption of the downward movement.
Alternative scenario - decline to 1325.00 from current levels.
Locally, we see some improvement in the fundamental background for gold, which contributes to the development of an upward movement on the chart. But there is a rather strong resistance ahead, at the level of 1343.00, which is unlikely to be overcome today, therefore from this level we consider short-term sales.