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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (January 15 - 19, 2018)

Jan 14 2018, 05:24 AM (+06) |

Here’s the market outlook for the week:



Dominant bias: Bullish

The market was bearish from Monday to Wednesday, and then began to make some bullish effort, which eventually paid for. From the middle of last week, price rose by 270 pips, to test the resistance line at 1.2200. That resistance line remains under siege, for it would easily be breached to the upside this week, as price gain at least, another 150 pips. The outlook on EUR pairs remains bullish.    



Dominant bias: Bearish

This pair made some weak bullish effort from January 8 to 10, almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9850. However, further bullish attempt was rejected as a bearish movement was assumed, which ended up generating a bearish signal in the market. From the high of last week, price dropped by 170 pips, closing below the resistance level at 0.9700 on Friday. The outlook on USDCHF is bearish for this week, for the market would face attacks from two fronts: CHF would gain some stamina, and a strong EURUSD would help ensure continuous bearish pressure on USDCHF.



Dominant bias: Bullish  

The bullish breakout that was witnessed in this market has ended the protracted consolidation in the market, which had held out for several weeks (save the bullish attempt that occurred in the last week of December 2017). GBPUSD moved upwards by 200 pips on Friday alone, and since GBP pairs would be somewhat bullish this week, it is logical to expect the bullish movement to continue, reaching the distribution territory at 1.3750 and 1.3800.  



Dominant bias: Bearish

USDJPY went south by 214 last week, making several unsuccessful attempts to break the demand level at 111.00 to the downside. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, which supports a bearish outlook on the market. That means the demand level at 111.00 would be breached to the downside, as price journeys further southwards to towards the demand levels at 110.50, 110.00, and 109.50.  



Dominant bias: Neutral    

Although the market was mostly bullish within the last 4 weeks, the bullishness was challenged last week as price dropped 320 pips from Monday to Wednesday. Nonetheless, the upwards bounce that was seen in the market on Thursday and Friday was strong enough to challenge its short-term bearishness. Only a movement of 100 pips to the upside would result in a strong “buy” signal; whereas a movement to the south, even by 150 pips, would help put more emphasis on the recent bearishness in the market. Until one of these directional movement happens, the bias on the market would remain somehow neutral.



Dominant bias: Bullish

This cross dropped 310 pips from Monday to Wednesday, consolidated on Thursday, and bounced upwards on Friday. Generally, the bias on the market is bullish: The pullback that happened in the first few days of last week appears to be offering an opportunity to buy long at better prices. Thus, the supply zones at 152.50, 153,00 and 153.50 would be targeted this week.   


This forecast is concluded with the quote below:



“Trading is a simple profession since it can be summed up in three ideas. If it is trending up over the time frame you are trading you buy it. If it trending down over the time frame you are trading you sell it. Don’t bet the farm. It is hardly rocket science yet despite this our very nature more often than not defeats us despite the evidence that it shouldn’t.” – Chris Tate




I simply copy profitable trades on Trading with peace of mind.